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The 3 Point Shot  Rate Topic 
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 Posted: Tue May 29th, 2018 04:48 pm
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beejmi
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Not ready to do away with it (I know I am old) but hopefully someone notices the 0 for 27 streak the Rockets went on last night and it might not be 'why' they lost the game, but it is part of why they lost it.

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 Posted: Tue May 29th, 2018 06:33 pm
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Franchise
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Outside of maybe a 3 year period of my life I never cared for basketball but I knew some people who did and they all said they would like to see dunks worth 1 and that the 3 point line should be moved back to make it an actual accomplishment.



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 Posted: Tue May 29th, 2018 06:35 pm
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srossi
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Isn't the big sabermetric analysis in basketball right now that you should only take 3's unless you have a lay-up or something? I don't follow basketball really but sabermetrics are ruining all sports.



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 Posted: Tue May 29th, 2018 06:39 pm
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Franchise wrote: Outside of maybe a 3 year period of my life I never cared for basketball but I knew some people who did and they all said they would like to see dunks worth 1 and that the 3 point line should be moved back to make it an actual accomplishment.
Take them with you to world of not watching basketball so they don't contribute this world with more dumb thoughts


The Nerds have fucked up the game because they say a 3pt shot is better than  a mid range shot but Boston and the Rockets prove why sometimes just stepping in and taking a mid range shot just for confidence is better than just jacking 3's all day long. If the Celtics and Rockets would have just made a few 2's they would both be playing for the title instead of season four of The Lebrons vs. Warriors

Last edited on Tue May 29th, 2018 06:39 pm by krazykid18

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 Posted: Tue May 29th, 2018 06:41 pm
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beejmi
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My numbers aren't exactly right because there can be more than one shot per possession, but Raw numbers,  a league average 46% shooting for 2 = .92 points

36% shooting for 3 = 1.08 points per possession


The 3 point shot is 'better' in the NBA much like swinging for the fences in baseball is better in baseball,  screw the stolen bases and bunting, etc

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 Posted: Tue May 29th, 2018 06:42 pm
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krazykid18

 

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srossi wrote: Isn't the big sabermetric analysis in basketball right now that you should only take 3's unless you have a lay-up or something? I don't follow basketball really but sabermetrics are ruining all sports.
Correct in baseball strikeouts don't matter , basketball mid range shots are terrible and the big man is useless, and football the running game is worth nothing.
Notice how the product off all these sports are horrible to watch and every team plays exactly the same. 

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 Posted: Tue May 29th, 2018 07:36 pm
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srossi
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krazykid18 wrote: srossi wrote: Isn't the big sabermetric analysis in basketball right now that you should only take 3's unless you have a lay-up or something? I don't follow basketball really but sabermetrics are ruining all sports.
Correct in baseball strikeouts don't matter , basketball mid range shots are terrible and the big man is useless, and football the running game is worth nothing.
Notice how the product off all these sports are horrible to watch and every team plays exactly the same. 

I definitely noticed and it's leading to a lot of boring games.  They've made base running obsolete in baseball, everything is home run, walk, or strikeout.  And I used to love watching Barry Sanders and those guys run and make exciting plays but now RBs barely exist except to jump into the pile on a 3rd and 1. 

Last edited on Tue May 29th, 2018 07:36 pm by srossi



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 Posted: Tue May 29th, 2018 07:38 pm
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Franchise
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krazykid18 wrote: Franchise wrote: Outside of maybe a 3 year period of my life I never cared for basketball but I knew some people who did and they all said they would like to see dunks worth 1 and that the 3 point line should be moved back to make it an actual accomplishment.
Take them with you to world of not watching basketball so they don't contribute this world with more dumb thoughts


The Nerds have fucked up the game because they say a 3pt shot is better than  a mid range shot but Boston and the Rockets prove why sometimes just stepping in and taking a mid range shot just for confidence is better than just jacking 3's all day long. If the Celtics and Rockets would have just made a few 2's they would both be playing for the title instead of season four of The Lebrons vs. Warriors


I think they are all dead now; must have been 20 years ago. 

technically the nerds are correct 3 is always better than 2. 

Last edited on Tue May 29th, 2018 07:38 pm by Franchise



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 Posted: Tue May 29th, 2018 07:40 pm
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Ultimark



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srossi wrote: krazykid18 wrote: srossi wrote: Isn't the big sabermetric analysis in basketball right now that you should only take 3's unless you have a lay-up or something? I don't follow basketball really but sabermetrics are ruining all sports.
Correct in baseball strikeouts don't matter , basketball mid range shots are terrible and the big man is useless, and football the running game is worth nothing.
Notice how the product off all these sports are horrible to watch and every team plays exactly the same. 

I definitely noticed and it's leading to a lot of boring games.  They've made base running obsolete in baseball, everything is home run, walk, or strikeout.  And I used to love watching Barry Sanders and those guys run and make exciting plays but now RBs barely exist except to jump into the pile on a 3rd and 1. 
Totally agree.  I think analytics has it's place but now teams in most sports are going too far.  I find myself watching more EPL Football and I used to hate that sport.  
If I were a baseball manager or GM for a small market team, I would go entirely the opposite way.  I would build a team on speed, use the hit and run all the time and emphasis making contact.  

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 Posted: Tue May 29th, 2018 07:44 pm
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Ultimark



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Also, the shift has gotten old in baseball. Start bunting the ball. Yes, being on first is not the same as hitting a home run but hitting line drives that are outs gets old as well. The Phillies had a player in 1977 named Ritchie Hebner (who came from the Pirates) and they used the shift against him. He bunted 5 straight times in one games. 5 singles. They used it a lot less after that. Also, the players need to learn how to hit the other way.

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 Posted: Tue May 29th, 2018 10:29 pm
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The Ultimate Sin
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Ultimark wrote: Also, the shift has gotten old in baseball. Start bunting the ball. Yes, being on first is not the same as hitting a home run but hitting line drives that are outs gets old as well. The Phillies had a player in 1977 named Ritchie Hebner (who came from the Pirates) and they used the shift against him. He bunted 5 straight times in one games. 5 singles. They used it a lot less after that. Also, the players need to learn how to hit the other way.
I liked Hebner.  He played for the Tigers fora while.
My high school math teacher was ahead of his time.  He was a math genius and basketball coach.  
In 1987, when Michigan High School AA allowed the 3 point shot, he "invented" an advanced shooting percentage to factor the value of the extra point when someone made a 3 pointer vs. a 2.  
 I couldn't understand the math, but he said think about it this way if player A shoots 3 for 3 on 2 pointers he scores 6 points.  If player B shoots 2 for 3 from 3 point range they score 6 points.  In his formula player B shot an adjusted 100% rather than 67%.
He died about 10 years ago, but somewhere he's explaining to Wilt if you would have shot more three pointers everyone would be saying Michael who?  Wilt is telling him, Chuck in the time you used to create that formula I banged 1700 chicks.



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 Posted: Wed May 30th, 2018 05:05 pm
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beejmi
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I believe the numbers are close enough that it is just as efficient to go to rim and get fouled.

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 Posted: Wed May 30th, 2018 06:28 pm
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Ultimark



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Well, you either go to the rim and get fouled or shoot a 3. The worst shot is a long 2. I am OK with moving the 3 pointer back a couple at the top of the key. You can't really do it at the corners without changing the size of the court itself.

I have always wanted a 4 point shot. 35 feet and out.

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