Mr Monday Night!
|Joined: ||Sun Oct 14th, 2007|
|Location: ||New York USA|
|And here's a blurb from today's report from Rod Skyles, who seems to call it down the middle and has good insight into these things:
The employment report came out today for December, and it was a significant miss on the low side, but the markets yawned for many reasons. First of all, December is notorious for being revised multiple times, as between Christmas and year-end responsibilities, companies often are not able to produce accurate December data for several weeks or even months after the report. Another reason is that we are past full employment when it comes to the governments most quoted report is the U-3 report, which vastly understates unemployment currently. What most non-political experts consider the “real” unemployment number is recorded as U-6 by the government. The December U-3 rate is down to 4.1%, the lowest since the late 1990’s, and the most recent U-6 rate (November) was 8.0%, meaning there is still a healthy labor pool of workers out there to be hired (more can be found here; https://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm). The question begins to become, however, how many “qualified” employees are out available? No way to answer that question in the abstract, but the good news for rank and file employees is that between the continued tightening of the labor market and the fast response of many companies to share savings from tax reform, wages are starting to go up for the first time, in real terms. If you exclude the top 1% of earners in this country, the remaining 99% average real (after inflation) wages are about 85% of what they were in the year 2000. Easy to say that both government policies of the previous 17 years and Federal Reserve monetary policies of the last 10 years or so have succeeded in making the very rich much richer, and everybody else worse off. It appears that policy changes of the last year or so, including tax changes, are showing real gains for you and I for the first time in almost two decades.
The above is not a Republican or Democrat issue whatsoever, as under the Democratic President Clinton combined with a Republican Congress, wages for the average person jumped substantially and government deficit spending all but disappeared. Under the GOP President Bush and Democratic President Obama, with mixed Congress’ (some split, some GOP dominated, some Democratic dominated), the average person lost all of their gains under the Clinton years plus some, and the very wealthy did very, very well indeed. And the deficit exploded under Bush, and grew at an even more rapid rate under Obama. The rich got richer under Bush, and the mega-wealthy did even better under Obama. This is not a partisan issue at all, because both sides tend to cater to the wealthiest of individuals and the biggest of companies. It is an issue of policies that benefit only the most powerful at the expense of the average person and those less fortunate. These policies are mostly focused on stringent regulations, as they become barriers of entry for new innovation, protect the largest companies, and create consolidation to be able to cope with the regulatory burden. This reduces competition, and while it may help the stock market (biggest companies), it hurts employees because it reduces competition for talent, stagnating wages. Under President Clinton, regulations were rolled back, taxes were reduced, and government intervention in business was also reduced. What is often called “Crony Capitalism” (which is not capitalism at all but the economic component of fascism) was significantly curtailed under Clinton, but flourished under Bush and exploded under Obama. Only the very rich benefit from crony capitalism, Clinton, despite his many personal faults, deserves tremendous credit in working with an opposition Congress in an attempt to dismantle this long-imbedded system. The hope would be that the Trump Administration, despite its many faults (and I mean MANY faults) continues to do the work of the Clinton 90’s and undue the work of 16 years under Bush and Obama.
This thread was great before AA ruined it.