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 Posted: Wed Dec 20th, 2017 04:50 pm
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nyhack56



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I always thought the U6 number was the better gauge of unemployment because it factors in people not looking for employment and people that are underemployed, where the U3 doesn't take those things into account.



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 Posted: Wed Dec 20th, 2017 06:18 pm
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srossi
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nyhack56 wrote: I always thought the U6 number was the better gauge of unemployment because it factors in people not looking for employment and people that are underemployed, where the U3 doesn't take those things into account.
Exactly.  Which is why they don't publicize the U6 number as much. 

I think we lost an entire generation in certain low income demographics to the Great Recession, between the jobs legitimately drying up to technological advances that they couldn't keep up with to rampant underemployment and part-time employment that they never bounced back from to laziness from welfare and unemployment insurance constantly being extended that made it more profitable to stay home than to work.  That is not really reflected accurately, not under Obama and not under Trump.



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 Posted: Thu Dec 21st, 2017 01:22 am
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BlueThunder



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srossi wrote: nyhack56 wrote: I always thought the U6 number was the better gauge of unemployment because it factors in people not looking for employment and people that are underemployed, where the U3 doesn't take those things into account.
Exactly.  Which is why they don't publicize the U6 number as much. 

I think we lost an entire generation in certain low income demographics to the Great Recession, between the jobs legitimately drying up to technological advances that they couldn't keep up with to rampant underemployment and part-time employment that they never bounced back from to laziness from welfare and unemployment insurance constantly being extended that made it more profitable to stay home than to work.  That is not really reflected accurately, not under Obama and not under Trump.


I agree as well. If we're going to use the same measuring stick for the last few years, one can't deny the appreciable gains in the last year. Also, no one can deny the nearly 2 million jobs that were created, many of which were in the secondary sector.

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 Posted: Thu Dec 21st, 2017 01:43 am
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Principal_Raditch



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I'd be intersting in seeing how people's measurable wealth goes in the next 10 years beyond the top segment. Obviously I'm fine with the market gains, but the overwhelming majority of Americans don't have a significant presence in the Market, so they're not going to see their net worth move up much. The big issue is going to be what happens with SS down the road. This generation doesn't, and wont have enough put away to cover basic retirement without the supplement.

A lot of people I work with...educated professionals, who are in their 40's and 50's have shit all put away. When I mean shit all, I"m talking about them thinking having 150k put away is going to work, when I explain they'll need 10x that.

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 Posted: Thu Dec 21st, 2017 01:51 am
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srossi
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Principal_Raditch wrote: A lot of people I work with...educated professionals, who are in their 40's and 50's have shit all put away. When I mean shit all, I"m talking about them thinking having 150k put away is going to work, when I explain they'll need 10x that.
Well for most people it simply isn't feasible to even think about having more than $1 million saved for retirement.  The average American has literally zero savings, and even people who have something socked away for a rainy day certainly can't make enough in their lifetimes to keep that much in reserve. 



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 Posted: Sat Jan 6th, 2018 01:32 am
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srossi
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Canada just announced that their unemployment is the lowest in the 40-year recorded history of the current survey.  I wonder if the same people crediting Trump will credit Trudeau (spoiler alert #1: no, and spoiler alert #2: neither has anything to do with anything).



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 Posted: Sat Jan 6th, 2018 01:36 am
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srossi
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And here's a blurb from today's report from Rod Skyles, who seems to call it down the middle and has good insight into these things: 

The employment report came out today for December, and it was a significant miss on the low side, but the markets yawned for many reasons. First of all, December is notorious for being revised multiple times, as between Christmas and year-end responsibilities, companies often are not able to produce accurate December data for several weeks or even months after the report. Another reason is that we are past full employment when it comes to the governments most quoted report is the U-3 report, which vastly understates unemployment currently. What most non-political experts consider the “real” unemployment number is recorded as U-6 by the government. The December U-3 rate is down to 4.1%, the lowest since the late 1990’s, and the most recent U-6 rate (November) was 8.0%, meaning there is still a healthy labor pool of workers out there to be hired (more can be found here; https://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm). The question begins to become, however, how many “qualified” employees are out available? No way to answer that question in the abstract, but the good news for rank and file employees is that between the continued tightening of the labor market and the fast response of many companies to share savings from tax reform, wages are starting to go up for the first time, in real terms. If you exclude the top 1% of earners in this country, the remaining 99% average real (after inflation) wages are about 85% of what they were in the year 2000. Easy to say that both government policies of the previous 17 years and Federal Reserve monetary policies of the last 10 years or so have succeeded in making the very rich much richer, and everybody else worse off. It appears that policy changes of the last year or so, including tax changes, are showing real gains for you and I for the first time in almost two decades.
 
The above is not a Republican or Democrat issue whatsoever, as under the Democratic President Clinton combined with a Republican Congress, wages for the average person jumped substantially and government deficit spending all but disappeared. Under the GOP President Bush and Democratic President Obama, with mixed Congress’ (some split, some GOP dominated, some Democratic dominated), the average person lost all of their gains under the Clinton years plus some, and the very wealthy did very, very well indeed. And the deficit exploded under Bush, and grew at an even more rapid rate under Obama. The rich got richer under Bush, and the mega-wealthy did even better under Obama. This is not a partisan issue at all, because both sides tend to cater to the wealthiest of individuals and the biggest of companies. It is an issue of policies that benefit only the most powerful at the expense of the average person and those less fortunate. These policies are mostly focused on stringent regulations, as they become barriers of entry for new innovation, protect the largest companies, and create consolidation to be able to cope with the regulatory burden. This reduces competition, and while it may help the stock market (biggest companies), it hurts employees because it reduces competition for talent, stagnating wages. Under President Clinton, regulations were rolled back, taxes were reduced, and government intervention in business was also reduced. What is often called “Crony Capitalism” (which is not capitalism at all but the economic component of fascism) was significantly curtailed under Clinton, but flourished under Bush and exploded under Obama. Only the very rich benefit from crony capitalism, Clinton, despite his many personal faults, deserves tremendous credit in working with an opposition Congress in an attempt to dismantle this long-imbedded system. The hope would be that the Trump Administration, despite its many faults (and I mean MANY faults) continues to do the work of the Clinton 90’s and undue the work of 16 years under Bush and Obama.



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