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 Posted: Tue May 8th, 2018 09:43 pm
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Papa Voo



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Behind Trump’s Termination of Iran Deal Is Risky Bet That U.S. Can ‘Break the Regime’

May 8, 2018  WASHINGTON  — For President Trump and two of the allies he values most — Israel and Saudi Arabia — the problem of the Iranian nuclear accord was not, primarily, about nuclear weapons. It was that the deal legitimized and normalized the clerical Iranian government, reopening it to the world economy with oil revenue that financed its adventures in Syria and Iraq and its support of terror groups.

Now, with his announcement Tuesday that he is exiting the Iran deal and will reimpose economic sanctions on the country and firms around the world that do business with it, Mr. Trump is engaged in a grand, highly risky experiment.

Mr. Trump and his Middle East allies are betting they can cut Iran’s economic lifeline and thus “break the regime,” as one senior European official described the effort. In theory, America’s withdrawal could free Iran to produce as much nuclear material as it wants — as it was five years ago, when the world feared it was headed toward a bomb.

But Mr. Trump’s team dismisses that risk: Tehran doesn’t have the economic strength to confront the United States, Israel and the Saudis. And Iran knows that any move to produce a weapon would only provide Israel and the United States with a rationale for taking military action.


It is a brutally realpolitik approach that America’s allies in Europe have warned is a historic mistake, one that could lead to confrontation, and perhaps to war. And it is a clear example of Middle East brinkmanship that runs counter to what President Barack Obama intended when the nuclear deal was struck in July 2015.

Mr. Obama’s gamble in that deal — the signature foreign policy accord of his eight years in office — was straightforward. He regarded Iran as potentially a more natural ally of the United States than many of its Sunni-dominant neighbors, with a young, educated Western-oriented population that is tired of being ruled by an aging theocracy.
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By taking the prospect of nuclear weapons off the table, the Obama administration had argued, the two countries could chip away at three decades of hostility, and work on common projects, starting with the defeat of the Islamic State.

It didn’t turn out that way. While the deal succeeded in getting 97 percent of Iran’s nuclear material out of the country, Iran’s conservatives and its military recoiled at the idea of cooperating on any projects with the West.

Months before it became clear that Mr. Trump had a decent shot at being elected, the Iranian military increased support for President Bashar al-Assad in Syria; it expanded its influence in Iraq and accelerated its support for terror groups. And it doubled down on deploying cyberattacks against targets in the West and in Saudi Arabia, embracing a weapon that was not covered by the nuclear accord.


Then came Mr. Trump, with his declaration that the deal was a “disaster” and his vow to dismantle it.

Exiting the deal, with or without a plan, is fine with the Saudis. They see the accord as a dangerous distraction from the real problem of confronting Iran around the region — a problem that the Saudis believe will be solved only by regime change in Iran. They have an ally in John R. Bolton, the president’s new national security adviser, who shares that view. Israel is a more complicated case. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pressed Mr. Trump to abandon an arrangement that he has always detested. But Mr. Netanyahu’s own military and intelligence advisers say Israel is far safer with an Iran whose pathway to a bomb is blocked, rather than one that is once again pursuing the ultimate weapon.
As a last-minute lure to persuade Mr. Trump to pull the plug on the Iran deal, Mr. Netanyahu last week released Iranian documents, stolen from Tehran in January, that proved what Western intelligence agencies long knew: A decade ago or even longer, the Iranians were working hard to design a nuclear warhead.

To Mr. Netanyahu, this was proof that Iran could never be trusted and that it had reached the nuclear deal under false pretenses by pretending it never had a weapons program.
To Mr. Trump and his allies, the Israeli discovery said less about Iranian nuclear capability than it did about Iranian perfidy.

Given evidence that Iran was preserving its bomb designs as a hedge for the future, the discovery suggested Iran has not given up its ambitions.

As former Middle East negotiator Dennis Ross put it, someone needed to address the Israeli discovery “lest they give the Iranians the ability to pick up quickly where they left off on weaponizing.”

“And, given the danger that Iran would have the ability to move rapidly to a weapon in the year 2030,” when the limits on enrichment are removed, “the sunset issue needs to be addressed,” said Mr. Ross, who negotiated Middle East issues during Mr. Obama first term, before the Iran deal began to take shape.

At the core of Mr. Trump’s announcement on Tuesday is a conviction that Iran can never be allowed to accumulate enough material to assemble a bomb. When the Europeans said that would require reopening the negotiations, Mr. Trump balked, and decided instead to blow up the entire deal.

It was a classic Trumpian move, akin to the days when he would knock down New York buildings to make way for visions of grander, more glorious edifices. But in this case, it is about upsetting a global power balance and weakening a regime that Mr. Trump has argued, since he began campaigning, must go.

Last edited on Tue May 8th, 2018 09:51 pm by Papa Voo

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 Posted: Tue May 8th, 2018 10:46 pm
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kargol



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Basically, President Trump has stabbed Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Russia, China, and Iranian reformers in the back.

Because Netanyahu and the Saudis are playing him like a piano.

Bibi's "proof" came out the same day as Israeli prosecutors announced they were interested in him because of his involvement in a massive bribery scandal.

So, basically, Trump takes away people who might stop Iran from making nuclear bombs, because he hates Obama, and because Netanyahu wants a distraction.

And the Republicans are already lining up behind Trump rather than sticking to their principles. What a rancind heap of cuntfuck they are.



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 Posted: Tue May 8th, 2018 10:47 pm
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broke



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Iran will announce they have a nuke within a year.



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 Posted: Wed May 9th, 2018 04:56 am
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Franchise
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This might be a dumb question but it’s often something I’ve wondered. How hard is it for a country to develop a nuclear bomb? Obviously the United States used some in WW2 nearly 75 years ago.


Kargol, are those countries that you listed going to act any differently towards the United States because of this? Or are they just going to be mad and still carry on business as usual?


I’m not political and or trying to start an issue I’m just asking.



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 Posted: Wed May 9th, 2018 06:29 am
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kargol



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Not sure. This could hit European banks pretty hard and that might affect business investment in the US.

I think on a diplomatic level though it will be a holding pattern until someone with sense gets into the White House. For one thing nobody will trust the States on any treaty.

Which is a problem given that the UK is withdrawing from the EU and could do with one. So what it might do is force the UK to (re-)sign up to the European Economic Area, so that there is a treaty already in place with the US by default.

Trump is due over here in a couple of months. I wonder if that will be cancelled.



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 Posted: Wed May 9th, 2018 09:54 am
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Kriss



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If Trump wanted isolationism, this is how he will get it. If the warmongers Trump have surrounded himself with want to kill more brown people in the Middle East, they will probably have to it by themselves now. I don't think even Theresa May, who has been sucking Trump's cock since he got elected, could side with him militarily now.

So, American companies have 180 days to stop any business with Iran... But who do they think have these deals with Iran. It's not Mom & Pop stores, or rural farmers, it's multinational corporations, who will just do what they are doing, but from a non-US subsidiary, and Trump will look the other way, because he loves rich people as much as he hates anyone who doesn't look like him.



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 Posted: Wed May 9th, 2018 11:15 am
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KGB

 

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Another winning move by PDT. Oh, the corruptocrats in Europe and the Mad Mullahs are pissed? Too fucking bad. This was an astoundingly insane deal to begin with, perpetrated by a President who seemed hell bent at empowering America's enemies at any cost to his own nation. While Iran was busy using its proxies to sow discord and kill Americans and others, Obama was gift wrapping pallets of cold, hard cash to the mullahs and giving them cover to develop a nuclear bomb with which to carry out their threats to nuke Israel and the West. Insanity, I tell you. Fortunately, reasoned heads have prevailed.



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 Posted: Wed May 9th, 2018 11:23 am
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Kriss



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KGB wrote: Another winning move by PDT. Oh, the corruptocrats in Europe and the Mad Mullahs are pissed? Too fucking bad. This was an astoundingly insane deal to begin with, perpetrated by a President who seemed hell bent at empowering America's enemies at any cost to his own nation. While Iran was busy using its proxies to sow discord and kill Americans and others, Obama was gift wrapping pallets of cold, hard cash to the mullahs and giving them cover to develop a nuclear bomb with which to carry out their threats to nuke Israel and the West. Insanity, I tell you. Fortunately, reasoned heads have prevailed.

And now? War?



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 Posted: Wed May 9th, 2018 11:37 am
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KGB

 

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Serious question. What makes war more inevitable now? The mullahs were pursuing their nuke anyway, it's just that they had the cover of quasi-legitimacy until yesterday.



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 Posted: Wed May 9th, 2018 11:37 am
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KGB

 

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kargol wrote:
I think on a diplomatic level though it will be a holding pattern until someone with sense gets into the White House. For one thing nobody will trust the States on any treaty.


This wasn't a treaty. 



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 Posted: Wed May 9th, 2018 12:15 pm
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Kriss



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KGB wrote: Serious question. What makes war more inevitable now? The mullahs were pursuing their nuke anyway, it's just that they had the cover of quasi-legitimacy until yesterday.

You are either a troll or a moron.



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 Posted: Wed May 9th, 2018 12:27 pm
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KGB being the all knowing genius that you are, can you explain to the rest of us why Trump's own intelligence agencies and hand-picked people have all testified that there is zero evidence of wrongdoing by Iran and how they are in compliance with the agreement?

I'm sure you have all of the answers. Please enlighten the rest of the world.

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 Posted: Wed May 9th, 2018 12:28 pm
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DaNkinator



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Kriss wrote: KGB wrote: Serious question. What makes war more inevitable now? The mullahs were pursuing their nuke anyway, it's just that they had the cover of quasi-legitimacy until yesterday.

You are either a troll or a moron.

This one.  Of epic proportions.

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 Posted: Wed May 9th, 2018 12:40 pm
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srossi
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Everyone wants war with Iran and have for 15 years now. This was the main reason not to vote for Hillary. But Trump got played by the same establishment goons responsible for all the wars since 2001. Draining the swamp indeed. But it's Trump so it's OK.



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 Posted: Wed May 9th, 2018 02:20 pm
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BlueThunder



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I'm kinda split on this. This was a dumb deal to begin with. Iran, by all accounts, had a struggling economy with the sanctions put in place. How on Earth does a struggling country have any sort of leverage in negotiating with the most powerful country in the world? Obama basically threw this terrorist state a lifeline in the form of 150 billion dollars and removal of sanctions.

Sorry, but I'm a little skeptical when Israel claims they have proof that Iran was violating the treaty by pursuing nuclear capabilities. They have ulterior motives. Don't get me wrong, I believe Israel has a right to exist, but they shouldn't be influencing our foreign policy.

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