View single post by kargol
 Posted: Thu Mar 26th, 2020 02:54 pm
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Joined: Thu Oct 18th, 2007
Location: Brum, United Kingdom
Posts: 4459
KGB wrote: Another interesting case, Iceland:

Iceland is presenting many interesting pointers for estimating the CFR. Iceland has tested a higher proportion of people than any other country (9,768 individuals), equivalent to  26,762 per million inhabitants the highest in the world (as a  comparison, South Korea has tested  6,343 individuals).

The results of screenings have suggested 0.5% are infected;  the true figure is likely higher due to asymptomatic and as a result of many not seeking testing: estimates suggest the real number infected is 1%. Iceland is currently reporting two deaths in 737 patients, CFR. 0.27%; if 1% of the population (364,000) is infected then the corresponding IFR would be 0.05%.  However, they have limited infections in the elderly as their test and quarantine measures have seemingly shielded this group, and the deaths will lag by about two weeks after the infections. Iceland’s higher rates of testing, the smaller population. and their ability to ascertain all those with Sars-CoV-2  means they will likely provide an accurate estimate of the CFR and the IFR.  Current data from Iceland suggests the IFR is somewhere between 0.05% and 0.14%.

The only people who go to Iceland in February are aurora chasers.  And they're more likely to go to Norway.
Iceland is hardly an example for the world given its isolation.  I think the concern is more that even such a cut-off island has 1% of its population infected.