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Democrat Wins Special Election in PA  Rate Topic 
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 Posted: Wed Mar 14th, 2018 09:46 pm
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Ultimark



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Conor Lamb, a moderate Democrat apparently won a special election last night in PA 18.  He is up by 600 votes with all the votes counted now. As usual the GOP is claiming irregularities.  Standard stuff these days from either side when a race this close happens.  Why does this matter?
1.  Trump won this district by 20 in 16.
2.  Dems did not even both to run a candidate in 16 or 14.  The last time they did, the D lost by 28. 28.
3.  The R's had outside groups spend 5-1 what the Dems spent.  
4.  The GOP is now claiming Lamb is one of their own.  I guess they are for medical marijuana, universal healthcare and strong unions.  Also, against right to work.  Who knew?
5. Trump and his admin campaigned hard in the CD.  Trump even did a rally where he basically talked about himself and played all the golden oldies. 
6.  They tested the tax cut as a strategy (which Lamb was against because he says it will ultimately be paid for by cuts in SS and Medicare).  That didn't work.  They went to the tried and true tie the candidate to Nancy Pelosi.  Didn't work and makes it over more ironic that they try to claim him as one of their own. 
In short, the GOP didn't have a great candidate here but he was no Roy Moore.  Under normal circumstances, this is an easy, double digit win for the R's.  Even a tie is a huge loss.  So much is in play in November.  The best is that Trump really believes he is helping the GOP.   

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 Posted: Wed Mar 14th, 2018 09:54 pm
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DaNkinator



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This could speak volumes for Nov.

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 Posted: Thu Mar 15th, 2018 12:28 am
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gwlee7



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The main takeaway to me is that Lamb is a moderate. That’s what the Dems need to remember.



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I just think it's amazing that Trump is really on Twitter all day, personally writing this shit. He's about 3 beers away from joining S&W and getting into a flame war with Ports.----srossi
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 Posted: Thu Mar 15th, 2018 12:30 am
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srossi
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gwlee7 wrote: The main takeaway to me is that Lamb is a moderate. That’s what the Dems need to remember.
Yup, most people are moderates and have no relation whatsoever to the craziness on the Internet that both sides spew.  Republicans are so much better at appealing to the moderates while still bringing in some of the crazies, while the Democrats love to alienate most of their base to cater to the smallest segment of yahoos they can, which in turn winds up creating more Republican voters.



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 Posted: Thu Mar 15th, 2018 12:31 am
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Ultimark



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Agree. You cannot run as a down the line liberal everywhere. However, he does hold core Dems views on most issues. That dingbat, Laura, was trying to make hi out to be Tom Cotton.

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 Posted: Thu Mar 15th, 2018 12:34 am
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Ultimark



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srossi wrote: gwlee7 wrote: The main takeaway to me is that Lamb is a moderate. That’s what the Dems need to remember.
Yup, most people are moderates and have no relation whatsoever to the craziness on the Internet that both sides spew.  Republicans are so much better at appealing to the moderates while still bringing in some of the crazies, while the Democrats love to alienate most of their base to cater to the smallest segment of yahoos they can, which in turn winds up creating more Republican voters.
I agreed with this right up until the last primary season.  There are nut jobs on both sides but the Trumpers are truly special.  The voter regs don't lie.  R's are re-registering as I's all the time now.  
Lamb is smart - this morning when asked he called for new leadership in Congress on both sides.  It really is amazing that any Dem could win there.  

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 Posted: Thu Mar 15th, 2018 01:47 am
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srossi
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Ultimark wrote: srossi wrote: gwlee7 wrote: The main takeaway to me is that Lamb is a moderate. That’s what the Dems need to remember.
Yup, most people are moderates and have no relation whatsoever to the craziness on the Internet that both sides spew.  Republicans are so much better at appealing to the moderates while still bringing in some of the crazies, while the Democrats love to alienate most of their base to cater to the smallest segment of yahoos they can, which in turn winds up creating more Republican voters.
I agreed with this right up until the last primary season.  There are nut jobs on both sides but the Trumpers are truly special.  The voter regs don't lie.  R's are re-registering as I's all the time now.  
Lamb is smart - this morning when asked he called for new leadership in Congress on both sides.  It really is amazing that any Dem could win there.  

Trump supporters are a special breed and many aren't Republicans at all.  I'm baffled by them.  I still think that many, many, many of his votes just came from really desperate people who figured "What the hell, let's do something crazy and see if things get better".  I think he's already lost most of those people.  They won't vote Democrat, they just won't vote anymore.  I hope that kills the experiment of voting for joke candidates instead of this becoming the norm, but I'm really not sure which way it will go.  The ones still on social media singing his praises no matter what, those people might as well be part of a cult.  Some of it might be embarrassment that they got fooled and they don't want to admit it, but there's definitely a cult-like mind-meld going on here that's pretty frightening.    

Last edited on Thu Mar 15th, 2018 01:48 am by srossi



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 Posted: Thu Mar 15th, 2018 02:14 am
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indikator



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My mother pretty much grew up in Washington, is there a chance that some tv station (local/national/news/whatever) produced features about the area because of the special election?



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 Posted: Thu Mar 15th, 2018 02:32 am
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Ultimark



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No and they clearly misunderstood the congressional district. They all thought the steel issue was the same as the coal issue. It isn't. Not even close. The economies that were all centered around steel diversified decades ago. They were closer to population centers because they needed the labor pool. Coal was where coal was. With a couple of exceptions, they have not diversified and have suffered. It is a religious district overall but not the types to throw it in your face. Definitely pro union. These were the Reagan Dems back in the day. Clinton got most back. Bush actually did well here and made inroads.

The Dems endless focus on cultural issues above anything else pissed many of them off and they clearly didn't like Hillary. It was not the same dislike as from other parts of the state though and that is what the national experts missed. These are the type of people to be put off by Trump's antics and a small bump in pay will not make up for that.

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 Posted: Thu Mar 15th, 2018 02:47 am
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Papa Voo



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The Three G’s are alive and well in Western PA......

Guns
God
& Gays

Lamb is moderate but had sworn to support organized labor with steelworkers and the coal minors who were heavily in favor of Trump. Many feel they were betrayed by a Trump even after a year. I think the news about the tariffs was timed perfectly with this election.

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 Posted: Thu Mar 15th, 2018 02:53 am
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Papa Voo



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Ultimark wrote: No and they clearly misunderstood the congressional district. They all thought the steel issue was the same as the coal issue. It isn't. Not even close. The economies that were all centered around steel diversified decades ago. They were closer to population centers because they needed the labor pool. Coal was where coal was. With a couple of exceptions, they have not diversified and have suffered. It is a religious district overall but not the types to throw it in your face. Definitely pro union. These were the Reagan Dems back in the day. Clinton got most back. Bush actually did well here and made inroads.



This district will be broken up and expanded by the end of the year.  
It got a little bit of everything in that district, but the southern tier close to WV are the right-wing nuts.  You have had a small increase in the more liberal in the  suburban areas.  
Most of the unions were pro-Trump, but I think his limited actions in only a year have them questioning if his rhetoric was all bullshit.   People are not perceiving the swamp to be draining.  It seems the only swamp draining is coming from his own administration.   



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 Posted: Thu Mar 15th, 2018 03:02 am
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Ultimark



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I know Green county pretty well.  Many of my roommates were from those 3 counties in college so I got to see it all first hand.  Always had a good time out that way.  

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 Posted: Thu Mar 15th, 2018 03:04 am
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Ultimark



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Papa Voo wrote: Ultimark wrote: No and they clearly misunderstood the congressional district. They all thought the steel issue was the same as the coal issue. It isn't. Not even close. The economies that were all centered around steel diversified decades ago. They were closer to population centers because they needed the labor pool. Coal was where coal was. With a couple of exceptions, they have not diversified and have suffered. It is a religious district overall but not the types to throw it in your face. Definitely pro union. These were the Reagan Dems back in the day. Clinton got most back. Bush actually did well here and made inroads.



This district will be broken up and expanded by the end of the year.  
It got a little bit of everything in that district, but the southern tier close to WV are the right-wing nuts.  You have had a small increase in the more liberal in the  suburban areas.  
Most of the unions were pro-Trump, but I think his limited actions in only a year have them questioning if his rhetoric was all bullshit.   People are not perceiving the swamp to be draining.  It seems the only swamp draining is coming from his own administration.   



I have heard that the new CD is way more favorable to Lamb.  He will likely be a prohibitive favorite against a R incumbent.  Given last night, I guess that incumbent will start to speak out against Trump pretty soon. 

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 Posted: Thu Mar 15th, 2018 03:08 am
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Ultimark



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I have to say that when I went to any bar in that area and they found out I served, I never bought a drink. It wasn't like I saw any real action. Definitely not like that where I am from. They respect people who serve but not to the extent I found on the other side of the state.

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 Posted: Thu Mar 15th, 2018 03:28 am
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Papa Voo



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I am from this area and lived in the heart of it.

It does not matter if you served or not if you disagree with the Three G’s.  You will be on your own island in some of those areas, let alone get a drink bought for you.

Last edited on Thu Mar 15th, 2018 03:31 am by Papa Voo

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