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 Posted: Thu May 31st, 2018 04:54 pm
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srossi

 

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broke wrote: Well, the steel tariffs and auto tariffs will make a shitload of stuff more expensive in the US, and lead to a pile of jobs lost after everyone else slaps on their retaliatory tariffs and turns the mid west into a dustbowl.
This is a fact.  It's also a far left policy and the willingness of Trump supporters to go along with it is mind-boggling.  This is what a Bernie Sanders presidency would look like.  Who would've ever thought that the biggest difference between Trump and Hillary is that Hillary would've been way more conservative on trade issues.  With Trump, you get the economic illiteracy of a liberal but still get to enjoy the sociopathic nationalism of a Republican.  Good times. 

Last edited on Thu May 31st, 2018 04:56 pm by srossi



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 Posted: Thu May 31st, 2018 05:12 pm
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broke



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Hoping Canada grows a sack and starts actually charging for all the excess hydro we send south. Wishful thinking, but diplomacy doesnt work with trumps senile brand of protectionists.

Enjoy paying a shitload more for vehicles, machinery, and anything that uses steel!



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 Posted: Thu May 31st, 2018 05:14 pm
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BlueThunder



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Eh, we have an enormous trade imbalance with China, Mexico, and the EU. We've been getting raped for years. All he wants to do is straighten it out a bit.

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 Posted: Thu May 31st, 2018 05:19 pm
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Ultimark



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What he is doing on trade is fairly smart imo. It is designed to get concessions. When they don't concede enough, he slaps on tariffs. He will also pull them off or make numerous loopholes when they concede. I am not against his policies in that regard. We came at negotiations as the timid giant for the last 40 years.

However, if it goes too far then you create a ton of inflation. We are not there yet but it is something to watch.

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 Posted: Thu May 31st, 2018 05:42 pm
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broke



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It won't work. Thats the problem. Then there's this.... https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/economics/video/u-s-will-lose-almost-150-000-jobs-because-of-steel-aluminum-tariffs-report~1341708:

(Fwiw I agree with him regarding more parts of a car coming from higher wage paying jurisdictions. This just seems like a completely ham fisted attempt to bring back jobs that permanently died decades ago)



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 Posted: Thu May 31st, 2018 05:44 pm
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Ultimark



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There are numerous issues involved. Yes, if the tariffs remain, job loss is a possibility but it is worse for the other parties because we are still the biggest market in the world. That is the calculation involved. This is a negotiating tool in the end.

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 Posted: Thu May 31st, 2018 05:45 pm
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Ultimark



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We have made numerous, awful trade deals over the last 4 decades because we didn't want to be seen as a bully. Yet, we are always accused of being that anyway. It really is time to negotiate fair deals. While I think Trump is an insane toddler in so many ways, I support the admins efforts here. There is risk involved though.

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 Posted: Thu May 31st, 2018 06:42 pm
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BlueThunder



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Ultimark wrote: There are numerous issues involved. Yes, if the tariffs remain, job loss is a possibility but it is worse for the other parties because we are still the biggest market in the world. That is the calculation involved. This is a negotiating tool in the end.

Right there says it all. I used to love listening to Larry Kudlow every Saturday and he nearly fracked out when Trump announced a blanket tariff for everyone. He was afraid it would cause a huge problem between us and countries that play fair with us, such as Canada. Of course that was just a negotiating ploy. Kudlow pretty much said that the countries that are raping up will be forced to come to the table because they'll be the ones hurt the most.

As much as I loved Kudlow and miss him on the radio, I'm glad he's advising Trump.

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 Posted: Thu May 31st, 2018 07:15 pm
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broke



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Oh look, we just slapped a few billion dollars of tariffs of our own, and that list is gonna grow to include produce and crops within a couple months. Personally id love t see us cut off some oil and hydro and really put the screws to the US.

Problem is with trumps logic is that enough countries in the world are pissed that they will all in turn ratchet up their own tariffs on US products. If I had a farm in the mid west id be shitting bricks right now, and thats even with the trump admin (illegally) giving subsidies to them. A few million jobs are gonna disappear in some swing states.

Bottom line, Wilbur Ross scored a massive own-goal.



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 Posted: Thu May 31st, 2018 07:29 pm
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Ultimark



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That is if it goes to far Broke. The farmers are the most vulnerable right away. I just don't think it will. To be honest, when you remove China and Japan, it takes a lot of countries to add up to the the size of the economy for the US.

Out of all of this, I am not sure exactly what Trump's problem with Canada is. Their environmental standards for manufacturing actually exceed the U.S. (pretty much California's policy) and the pay is slightly above what is paid in the U.S. So, that part is confounding.

Here is the thing though - they can try to impose tariffs. Most already do but do so in a backhanded way called GST. Again, the largest market in the world is in the U.S. To get shut out is devastating. The U.S. will suffer if it goes too far BUT the U.S. also has, by far, the most diversified economy in the world. This country may get hurt but not nearly as much as others.

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 Posted: Thu May 31st, 2018 07:36 pm
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Ultimark



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broke wrote: Oh look, we just slapped a few billion dollars of tariffs of our own, and that list is gonna grow to include produce and crops within a couple months. Personally id love t see us cut off some oil and hydro and really put the screws to the US.

Problem is with trumps logic is that enough countries in the world are pissed that they will all in turn ratchet up their own tariffs on US products. If I had a farm in the mid west id be shitting bricks right now, and thats even with the trump admin (illegally) giving subsidies to them. A few million jobs are gonna disappear in some swing states.

Bottom line, Wilbur Ross scored a massive own-goal.
In the past, we have needed Canada for oil.  That is not the case anymore and is why the Trump admin is threatening to drill pretty much everywhere.  Natural gas was a game changer and when the Saudi's failed to turn the U.S. into only energy importers again, it completely shifted the paradigm.  Now, it takes about a 1/3rd of the cost it used to take to get energy resources out of the ground and that cost continues to drop.  It is as much of a story about technology as it is about energy.  Therefore, Trump isn't worried about Canada.  My theory is that it really is all about Mexico but NAFTA involves all 3 so you cannot just end it by going after Mexico alone. 
I spent a lot of time in Canada and love the people.  In the mid 2's they were convinced that the relationship with the U.S. would be status quo because of the United States need for natural resources from Canada.  Thanks to what the Saudi's started, that isn't the case anymore.  That is also why Saudi is desperately trying to diversify their economy because they can see what is happening in the U.S. 
A ton of moving parts involved but something had to give on this.  The situation for this country was untenable.  The trade deals need to be reworked.   This is the only way that will happen. 

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 Posted: Thu May 31st, 2018 07:37 pm
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broke



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https://www.fin.gc.ca/activty/consult/cacsap-cmpcaa-eng.asp

Complete list beyond steel and aluminum. Seems steel etc. Is potentially just the beginning.



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 Posted: Thu May 31st, 2018 07:37 pm
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Ultimark



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broke wrote: Oh look, we just slapped a few billion dollars of tariffs of our own, and that list is gonna grow to include produce and crops within a couple months. Personally id love t see us cut off some oil and hydro and really put the screws to the US.

Problem is with trumps logic is that enough countries in the world are pissed that they will all in turn ratchet up their own tariffs on US products. If I had a farm in the mid west id be shitting bricks right now, and thats even with the trump admin (illegally) giving subsidies to them. A few million jobs are gonna disappear in some swing states.

Bottom line, Wilbur Ross scored a massive own-goal.
Honestly, those tariffs won't even get the admin's attention.  It comes down to a few other countries.  Canada is just caught up in it thanks to NAFTA.  

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 Posted: Thu May 31st, 2018 07:42 pm
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KGB

 

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Ultimark wrote: KGB wrote: srossi wrote: not to mention gas prices going through the roof again due to other foreign policy decisions. 

The primary reason gas prices are rising is that OPEC has decided to throttle down the supply due to the fact that the US petro-industry is booming and they'd like to nip it in the bud, coupled with the overall woes of the Venezuelan oil industry.  And there's also the fact that US refineries are switching over to the costlier summer blends.  Of all the sins one could rightly or wrongly lay at the feet of Donald Trump, pump prices isn't one of them. 
Saudi and Russia have agreed to increase production.  Rossi is right on this one.  There is no longer a supply/demand imbalance.   
 
No, he's not right on this one.  Russia has made noises about upping production but only in the past few days and nothing's set in stone.  There is no supply/demand imbalance currently but what does that have to do with Trump or his policies?  The fact is that the Saudis cut production by a significant level over the past few quarters and the Venezuelans are a complete fucking basket case.  It's been a couple years now that the OPEC countries have planned on drawing down output to raise prices, and the primary cause of that was not Donald Trump but the shale revolution in the United States.  A boom that continues today and will keep prices from rising much further.   



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 Posted: Thu May 31st, 2018 08:32 pm
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Angelic Assassin



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Roseanne Barr



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