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Election predictions  Rate Topic 
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 Posted: Mon Nov 5th, 2018 07:44 pm
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BlueThunder



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Do the Republicans keep the Senate and House?
I think the GOP pick up North Dakota, Indiana, Montana, Missouri, and Florida. They'll keep, Texas, Tennessee, and maybe Arizona.

I think the GOP will keep the House. In my opinion, the expect hemorrhage will turn out to be a bloody nose. The reason being is the following: Kavanaugh circus, Trump rallies, and the recent 250,000 job gains couples with rising wages. 

What say you?

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 Posted: Mon Nov 5th, 2018 08:03 pm
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Ultimark



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Reps gain 2 in the Senate.

Dems gain 29 in the House and control.

A net gain of 3 for the D's in Govs.

Just the right amount to make everyone happy and unhappy at the same time. I do not think the R's will win in FL or MT. IN is very close. They definitely win in ND an probably in MO. The R's keep TX and TN and TN doesn't look to be very close. The Dems may pick up either AZ or NV. If they do not then, the R's +3 in the Sen.

I reserve the right to be wrong.

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 Posted: Mon Nov 5th, 2018 08:55 pm
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Married Jo



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Republicans pick up 3-4 in the Senate, lose about 12 in the House..



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 Posted: Mon Nov 5th, 2018 10:46 pm
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gwlee7



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Turnouts for early voting has been huge in metropolitan TX. When my wife and I voted Friday, it was a very long wait and a very diverse crowd. I know better than to make any predictions.

I am thrilled to see so many voting.



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 Posted: Tue Nov 6th, 2018 03:56 am
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Big Garea Fan

 

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I haven't followed politics outside of my state but I predict that the Dems will win enough to control Congress. Then both parties will point fingers and cry "Gridlock" as they blame each other for nothing changing. It's all a big scam.

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 Posted: Tue Nov 6th, 2018 04:30 am
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gwlee7 wrote:Turnouts for early voting has been huge in metropolitan TX. When my wife and I voted Friday, it was a very long wait and a very diverse crowd. I know better than to make any predictions.

I am thrilled to see so many voting.

Down here in Fortbend county the early voting crowd was big; we went a week and a half ago and we weren’t the only ones. 



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 Posted: Tue Nov 6th, 2018 02:22 pm
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srossi
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I have given up on predictions and want to try to avoid Facebook until at least Thursday. I will just be happy when I stop seeing campaign commercials because this year they're the craziest I've ever seen.



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 Posted: Wed Nov 7th, 2018 03:50 am
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srossi
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Doesn’t seem like any surprises as far as the big picture goes. The Republicans did well in the Senate but the Democrats are flipping a lot of House seats.



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 Posted: Wed Nov 7th, 2018 04:46 am
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Here in the KC area, Kansas elected a female Dem as Gov, and a Native Lesbian MMA fighter took one of the House Seats from the Incumbent Con.
So as far as I can tell, does this mean 2 years of nothing getting done as far as legislation then? 

Last edited on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 04:47 am by Principal_Raditch

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 Posted: Wed Nov 7th, 2018 12:10 pm
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gwlee7



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They’ve accomplished very little other than a rich guy tax break with the GOP controlling everything so no, there won’t be much accomplished with The Dems controlling the House. It will be loads of fun watching Trump meltdown over having some real scrutiny from oversight committees though.



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I just think it's amazing that Trump is really on Twitter all day, personally writing this shit. He's about 3 beers away from joining S&W and getting into a flame war with Ports.----srossi
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 Posted: Wed Nov 7th, 2018 02:09 pm
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srossi
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A few positives in a sea of shit (stolen from a Libertarian Facebook post).  I'm very proud to have been one of the votes that got the LP ballot access in NY.  That's huge.

Michigan voted to legalize the recreational use and possession of marijuana.

Missouri voted to legalize medical marijuana.

North Carolina approves ballot measure to amend state's constitution to reduce the income tax rate to a max allowable rate of 7%.

Florida votes to allow ex-felons who have served their time to vote.

Larry Sharpe exceeded the 50K needed in NY to gain official party status and ballot access for the Libertarian Party.

Last edited on Wed Nov 7th, 2018 02:10 pm by srossi



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 Posted: Wed Nov 7th, 2018 02:37 pm
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Ultimark



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BlueThunder wrote: Do the Republicans keep the Senate and House?
I think the GOP pick up North Dakota, Indiana, Montana, Missouri, and Florida. They'll keep, Texas, Tennessee, and maybe Arizona.

I think the GOP will keep the House. In my opinion, the expect hemorrhage will turn out to be a bloody nose. The reason being is the following: Kavanaugh circus, Trump rallies, and the recent 250,000 job gains couples with rising wages. 

What say you?
Looks like we were both wrong.  The R's had a strong night in the Sen.  By my count, at least a +4 gain.  Kept everything except for NV which is now a blue state basically.  TX and AZ were very close.  The D's seem to be creeping up there.  Congrats on that prediction. 
Your House prediction was off.  Mine looks like it will be close.  Seems like +30 to +32 will be the final tally with a couple of recounts.  I guess we can both pretend to know something. 
I will say this.  2 years is an eternity in politics and who the f knows what will happen?  However, I am stunned that the D's would put Pelosi front and center again.  She is the perfect foil for Trump to play against and it is all theatre to him.  With a gun to my head, I would guess now that Trump would win re-election and the R's would have a good shot at winning the House back.  Shocking the D's don't see this.  Lots of people could be Speaker.  Not sure why they want her especially when it is unlikely that they will be able to do any deals.  Trump will probably agree to one or two then Mitch will do that little laugh of his and then Trump will pretend the tweet about doing a deal with Pelosi never happened and go scorched earth.  So easy to read this now. 

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 Posted: Wed Nov 7th, 2018 02:47 pm
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Ultimark



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srossi wrote: A few positives in a sea of shit (stolen from a Libertarian Facebook post).  I'm very proud to have been one of the votes that got the LP ballot access in NY.  That's huge.

Michigan voted to legalize the recreational use and possession of marijuana.

Missouri voted to legalize medical marijuana.

North Carolina approves ballot measure to amend state's constitution to reduce the income tax rate to a max allowable rate of 7%.

Florida votes to allow ex-felons who have served their time to vote.

Larry Sharpe exceeded the 50K needed in NY to gain official party status and ballot access for the Libertarian Party.
That result in FL is very interesting.  A lot of R's had to vote for that to pass the way it did.  I was surprised by that. 

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 Posted: Wed Nov 7th, 2018 05:03 pm
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BlueThunder



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Ultimark wrote: BlueThunder wrote: Do the Republicans keep the Senate and House?
I think the GOP pick up North Dakota, Indiana, Montana, Missouri, and Florida. They'll keep, Texas, Tennessee, and maybe Arizona.

I think the GOP will keep the House. In my opinion, the expect hemorrhage will turn out to be a bloody nose. The reason being is the following: Kavanaugh circus, Trump rallies, and the recent 250,000 job gains couples with rising wages. 

What say you?
Looks like we were both wrong.  The R's had a strong night in the Sen.  By my count, at least a +4 gain.  Kept everything except for NV which is now a blue state basically.  TX and AZ were very close.  The D's seem to be creeping up there.  Congrats on that prediction. 
Your House prediction was off.  Mine looks like it will be close.  Seems like +30 to +32 will be the final tally with a couple of recounts.  I guess we can both pretend to know something. 
I will say this.  2 years is an eternity in politics and who the f knows what will happen?  However, I am stunned that the D's would put Pelosi front and center again.  She is the perfect foil for Trump to play against and it is all theatre to him.  With a gun to my head, I would guess now that Trump would win re-election and the R's would have a good shot at winning the House back.  Shocking the D's don't see this.  Lots of people could be Speaker.  Not sure why they want her especially when it is unlikely that they will be able to do any deals.  Trump will probably agree to one or two then Mitch will do that little laugh of his and then Trump will pretend the tweet about doing a deal with Pelosi never happened and go scorched earth.  So easy to read this now. 



You're spot on with Trump running circles over Pelosi. Even most Dems now that she's nuts. If I were Trump, I'd offer prison reform and legalization of marijuana for tax cuts. If she refuses, she is looked down upon by fellow liberals and libertarians. If she agrees, Trump grabs credit for all three.

Boy, it looks like Schumer screwed up royally on opposing Gorsuch and Kav. All Dem Senators in Red states lost except Manchin, and he only won by 3 or 4 points. 

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 Posted: Wed Nov 7th, 2018 05:12 pm
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BlueThunder



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BlueThunder wrote: Ultimark wrote: BlueThunder wrote: Do the Republicans keep the Senate and House?
I think the GOP pick up North Dakota, Indiana, Montana, Missouri, and Florida. They'll keep, Texas, Tennessee, and maybe Arizona.

I think the GOP will keep the House. In my opinion, the expect hemorrhage will turn out to be a bloody nose. The reason being is the following: Kavanaugh circus, Trump rallies, and the recent 250,000 job gains couples with rising wages. 

What say you?
Looks like we were both wrong.  The R's had a strong night in the Sen.  By my count, at least a +4 gain.  Kept everything except for NV which is now a blue state basically.  TX and AZ were very close.  The D's seem to be creeping up there.  Congrats on that prediction. 
Your House prediction was off.  Mine looks like it will be close.  Seems like +30 to +32 will be the final tally with a couple of recounts.  I guess we can both pretend to know something. 
I will say this.  2 years is an eternity in politics and who the f knows what will happen?  However, I am stunned that the D's would put Pelosi front and center again.  She is the perfect foil for Trump to play against and it is all theatre to him.  With a gun to my head, I would guess now that Trump would win re-election and the R's would have a good shot at winning the House back.  Shocking the D's don't see this.  Lots of people could be Speaker.  Not sure why they want her especially when it is unlikely that they will be able to do any deals.  Trump will probably agree to one or two then Mitch will do that little laugh of his and then Trump will pretend the tweet about doing a deal with Pelosi never happened and go scorched earth.  So easy to read this now. 



You're spot on with Trump running circles over Pelosi. Even most Dems know that she's nuts. If I were Trump, I'd offer prison reform and legalization of marijuana for tax cuts. If she refuses, she is looked down upon by fellow liberals and libertarians. If she agrees, Trump grabs credit for all three.

Boy, it looks like Schumer screwed up royally on opposing Gorsuch and Kav. All Dem Senators in Red states lost except Manchin, and he only won by 3 or 4 points. 

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