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 Posted: Mon Jun 29th, 2020 03:45 pm
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Kriss
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KGB wrote: Are they under counting deaths too? If so, they'd be the only place in the country/world that's not inflating their totals.

Statistics that show that deaths are generally being under-reported:
https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/comment/excess-deaths-pandemic-covid-19-fatalities/

Statistics that show that deaths in US states are generally being under-reported:
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/05/30/how-covid-19-is-being-underreported-in-most-states/111871488/

Countries in Africa may not be recording deaths:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52702838

Countries in Latin America under-reporting:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/06/experts-latin-america-coronavirus-death-toll-under-reported-200603104234757.html

Argentina probably under-reporting:
https://gettheessential.com/politics/2020/03/19/graphic-argentinas-cases-are-likely-underreported

Brazil accused of censoring deaths:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/07/brazil-stops-releasing-covid-19-death-toll-and-wipes-data-from-official-site

Canada possibly under-reporting deaths:
https://globalnews.ca/news/6932428/coronavirus-canada-death-records/

China accused of under-reporting:
https://fortune.com/2020/04/01/china-coronavirus-cases-deaths-total-under-report-cover-up-covid-19/

India accused of under-reporting:
https://www.ft.com/content/5049c66f-449d-4a13-ba1c-f95893b60597

Iran accused of under-reporting:
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1647701/middle-east

Iraq accused of under-reporting:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-iraq/iraq-has-confirmed-thousands-more-covid-19-cases-than-reported-medics-say-idUSKBN21K2GQ

Deaths were probably under-reported in Italy:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1282503/italy-death-toll-coronavirus-lombardy-covid-19-investigation-report-data-figures

Mexico accused of under-reporting:
https://www.vox.com/2020/5/13/21255012/coronavirus-covid-19-mexico-death-count-cases

Pakistan accused of under-reporting:
https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/covid-19-deaths-patients-grossly-under-reported-pakistan

Russia accused of under-reporting:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/11/world/europe/coronavirus-deaths-moscow.html

Serbia accused of under-reporting:
https://balkaninsight.com/2020/06/22/serbia-under-reported-covid-19-deaths-and-infections-data-shows/

Turkey accused of under-reporting:
https://www.ft.com/content/80bb222c-b6eb-40ea-8014-563cbe9e0117

UK deaths under-reported:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/19/over-1000-deaths-day-uk-ministers-accused-downplaying-covid-19-peak


In the interests of fairness:
Belgium accused over over-reporting:
https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/22/analysis-can-we-trust-belgium-s-covid-19-death-statistics

Luxembourg reporting correct number:
https://luxtimes.lu/luxembourg/40949-april-death-data-suggest-no-corona-cases-missed

I'll admit there are a lot of reports claiming various local counts in the US are inflated, but I can't find any other countries, bar Belgium, that have been accused of over-reporting.



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 Posted: Mon Jun 29th, 2020 04:24 pm
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tamalie
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Apart from the fact that the first states to open, mainly in the South, didn't really do enough with stay in place orders to begin with, the big problem is that too many people took reopening as back to normal and did nothing to regulate their own behavior. I also agree with Kriss that the little the masks do is better than nothing and wearing one, and seeing others wear them too, promotes safer behavior.

Minnesota locked down before most states and has reopened in stages. So far there hasn't been a big spike in cases since the reopening started and since the riots and demonstrations last month.

- The state has 35,861 confirmed cases with 1,435 deaths, a death rate of 4%.

- The number of those needing hospitalization is 4,031, about 11%.

- The daily fatality curve has significantly flattened out from the peak.

- The peak number of hospitalizations was around 600 in late May. It's now under 300.

- The peak number of ICU cases was around 250 in early June. It's now under 150.

- The population of Minnesota is about 5,640,000. The number of completed tests is 592,955, 10.5% of the population.

- The daily percentage of positive tests was around 22% at its peak in early May. Now its down to around 4%.

- 26% of the dead were over 90 years of age. 34% were between 80 and 89. 19% were between 70 and 79. 12% were between 60 and 69. All told 91% of the dead were 60 or older even though the number of people in that age group constitute 18% of the state's population.

Last edited on Mon Jun 29th, 2020 04:25 pm by tamalie

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 Posted: Mon Jun 29th, 2020 04:32 pm
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I'd venture Canada has had it far earlier than reported. One of my wife's friends who works of a factory floor just got diagnosed with it - thankfully we haven't seen her in a month but still.



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 Posted: Mon Jun 29th, 2020 06:23 pm
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KGB

 

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Last edited on Mon Jun 29th, 2020 06:32 pm by KGB



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 Posted: Mon Jun 29th, 2020 06:59 pm
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KGB

 

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Kriss wrote: KGB wrote: Are they under counting deaths too? If so, they'd be the only place in the country/world that's not inflating their totals.

Statistics that show that deaths are generally being under-reported:
https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/comment/excess-deaths-pandemic-covid-19-fatalities/.....

Good job.  I just finished reading every single link you provided.  A couple of them were very outdated (mid-March seems like a century ago now), several of them were "experts say" with no attribution and no math to back up the claim.  And even in those that provide data they're ultimately left to conclude that deaths must be higher...because we think so.  

I absolutely agree that Chinese figures are not to be trusted.  The Brazilian situation stinks, and others, like Iran, are/were hiding something.  Ultimately, as the USA Today article gets to, the best we can do is look at excess deaths.  Do we want to ascribe the difference in all excess deaths vs. reported Wuflu numbers to the Coronavirus?  I don't.  If any expert does, then I really need them to provide for me some exact justification.There are lots of non-Covid reasons for that gap that make sense, for example, the refusal of panicked members of the public to visit hospitals, delayed treatment for chronic diseases, depression/suicide, etc. 
  As for the number of "official" deaths there are two major issues.  One, as has been discussed and documented at length here, is the "dying with" vs. "dying of" issue.  That alone is responsible for a sizable bump in the official numbers.  I don't see how anyone can argue that.  The other issue is the person(s)/organization(s) doing the counting.  THIS POST gets into the potential issues, particularly double counting, that likely plague these numbers.  

And then there are cases like this, where numbers are pumped up in large doses based on guesswork about past deaths.  





The first article you linked concludes with this:

Due to limitations in early testing for the disease, there is a high possibility that COVID-19 deaths may have been undercounted, which has resulted in underreporting of COVID-19 deaths. It is also possible that the excess deaths can be indirectly related to other problems during the pandemic, such as overburden on the healthcare system and lack of access to care. Accurate reporting of excess COVID-19 deaths needs to be done and that includes additional testing. The consequence of underreporting cases and deaths can have an effect on public policy and the outcome of the pandemic.

The consequence of overreporting deaths can also have an effect on public policy and the outcome of the pandemic as well.  Many health professionals have lost sight of that and appear to be enjoying far too much their outsized place in the world today.  There's more to life than avoiding death.  




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 Posted: Mon Jun 29th, 2020 07:09 pm
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Kriss
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There are lots of non-Covid reasons for that gap that make sense, for example, the refusal of panicked members of the public to visit hospitals, delayed treatment for chronic diseases, depression/suicide, etc..

I think we have to count every death associated with the pandemic. This includes the elderly and people with underlying conditions. You can say they were helped along, but they would have lived longer, most of them years longer, if they hadn't caught Covid. People who chose not to seek medical attention because of fear of catching Covid? They count too, as do people who died in overcrowded hospitals that couldn't cope, even if they didn't die of Covid. They wouldn't have died if there was no Covid. All the extra deaths are ultimately because of Covid. No Covid, these people are still alive today, no matter what they died of. And I'll eventually want to add anyone who dies due to poverty in the future.

You can disagree with me, but IMHO you're just arguing semantics by trying to argue away some of the deaths and excess deaths.



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 Posted: Mon Jun 29th, 2020 07:30 pm
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NJ has decided not to bring back indoor dining next week as planned, and NY will certainly make the same decision it seems. We're still in good shape with the numbers but the spike in other states ruined it for us.



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 Posted: Mon Jun 29th, 2020 09:14 pm
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Kinda stepping back, isn't it insane that nobody really knows anything right now? Every message board, forum, web site comment section, or Facebook page I read has the same discussions, often heated, over and over again. I've never seen anything like this, where everyone has an opinion and nobody really is certain.



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 Posted: Mon Jun 29th, 2020 11:23 pm
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So today both Mike Pence and Mitch McConnell cane out STRONG for wearing masks for the first time. Trump’s numbers have never been lower and everything is closing again so they’re starting to shut bricks and getting away from the party line of the last 3 months. But everyone will now pretend that they were ALWAYS saying this because it’s “1984”.

Last edited on Mon Jun 29th, 2020 11:23 pm by srossi



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 Posted: Tue Jun 30th, 2020 12:41 am
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Bear in mind that I'm in Suffolk County just about 65 miles from midtown Manhattan. My missus and I went to our first restaurant in four months. They had plenty of outdoor seating set up but fuck that noise. It's too hot and in memory of the homeless guy I'm 85% sure I killed in Manhattan ten years ago I'll never eat outdoors again.


You see beej boarders, when my then girlfriend said "Let's eat outside" I adamantly said NO!! So of course ten minutes later we're sitting out on 9th Avenue in Hells Kitchen at some hipster type place which I'm sure has changed hands over sixty times since that fateful day. It didn't take long and just as I expected, a homeless guy comes up to fandangle a few quid. I give him a couple of bucks which I've done my entire life because it's the right thing to do and my father and uncles always told me to. Meanwhile, my lib girlfriend starts to engage him in conversation. I shoot her daggers but to no avail. This is EXACTLY why I never once ate outdoors in the city. I don't WANT to fight homeless skells.


Now she had a way about her where she could start a streetfight with Gandhi because she spoke in circles. But what the fuck, I was 50 and she was 25 and a super hot piece of Native American ass. The homeless guy starts to get agitated (quite frankly with good reason) and I tell him "c'mon buddy I'm just trying to eat here". Then he says to me and I quote "What I'm about to say I'm not talking to you, I'm talking to her". I actually said "Please don't" "Just don't do it brother". Well he did. He calls her a "Know it all cunt" (she was). Now of course I can't let that go. I got up and connected right on the button and he fell back about seven or eight feet onto the gutter of 9th Avenue. Praise Allah he didn't hit his head but he seemed to be out cold. The manager of the place comes running out and told me to get out of there he'll take care of it. Mighty sporting of him but I have a feeling this guy had been harassing his customers for months. I handed him fifty bucks for maybe a twenty dollar bill because we had only just gotten there maybe twenty minutes before. My girly and I went in two different directions and caught separate cabs back to her place uptown. And THAT'S my rona virus story....even though it happened ten years ago.



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 Posted: Tue Jun 30th, 2020 04:07 am
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srossi

 

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WongLee wrote: Bear in mind that I'm in Suffolk County just about 65 miles from midtown Manhattan. My missus and I went to our first restaurant in four months. They had plenty of outdoor seating set up but fuck that noise. It's too hot and in memory of the homeless guy I'm 85% sure I killed in Manhattan ten years ago I'll never eat outdoors again.


You see beej boarders, when my then girlfriend said "Let's eat outside" I adamantly said NO!! So of course ten minutes later we're sitting out on 9th Avenue in Hells Kitchen at some hipster type place which I'm sure has changed hands over sixty times since that fateful day. It didn't take long and just as I expected, a homeless guy comes up to fandangle a few quid. I give him a couple of bucks which I've done my entire life because it's the right thing to do and my father and uncles always told me to. Meanwhile, my lib girlfriend starts to engage him in conversation. I shoot her daggers but to no avail. This is EXACTLY why I never once ate outdoors in the city. I don't WANT to fight homeless skells.


Now she had a way about her where she could start a streetfight with Gandhi because she spoke in circles. But what the fuck, I was 50 and she was 25 and a super hot piece of Native American ass. The homeless guy starts to get agitated (quite frankly with good reason) and I tell him "c'mon buddy I'm just trying to eat here". Then he says to me and I quote "What I'm about to say I'm not talking to you, I'm talking to her". I actually said "Please don't" "Just don't do it brother". Well he did. He calls her a "Know it all cunt" (she was). Now of course I can't let that go. I got up and connected right on the button and he fell back about seven or eight feet onto the gutter of 9th Avenue. Praise Allah he didn't hit his head but he seemed to be out cold. The manager of the place comes running out and told me to get out of there he'll take care of it. Mighty sporting of him but I have a feeling this guy had been harassing his customers for months. I handed him fifty bucks for maybe a twenty dollar bill because we had only just gotten there maybe twenty minutes before. My girly and I went in two different directions and caught separate cabs back to her place uptown. And THAT'S my rona virus story....even though it happened ten years ago.

You were encountering homeless people while dining outside just 10 years ago?  I thought Rudy killed all of them 10 years earlier than that and they hadn't started repopulating yet.

I really have never had that problem.  The only time I ever got approached by the homeless while I ate was in the dining corridor in the basement of Grand Central Terminal, where I used to eat lunch every day back when I worked in the Chrysler Building (which is basically attached for those that don't know NYC).  That was completely to be expected though, so I could never be angry about it. 

I actually have always found NYC's homeless to be very passive.  They know the rules.  They mostly sick to the side of streets with their cups out, or they make their little speech in the subway and then walk through with hand held out, but they rarely directly approach individuals.  If one does, it's often the equivalent of a racoon with rabies and you might be in danger.  But every other city I've vacationed in, the culture shock with the homeless behavior is jarring.  Tampa, Montreal, Boston, Philly, even Paris and London, these motherfuckers are aggressive.  They lock eyes with a mark and follow them for 2 blocks.  I have never seen anything like that in NYC.  And the only time anyone ever stole a subway swipe from me was in Paris. 40 years riding the subway in NY, never happened once. My 2nd day in Paris going to visit Jim Morrison’s grave, sone degenerate pushed his way through the turnstile with me without saying a word. Maybe in Paris I had a tourist vibe and in NY I don’t, but that shit was weird. 

Last edited on Tue Jun 30th, 2020 04:11 am by srossi



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 Posted: Tue Jun 30th, 2020 03:03 pm
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Those states opened to soon and have too many people not wearing masks and distancing. When Trump was barking for everyone to open up they did. They listened to Trump instead of experts. Some are now admitting they opened too soon and are closing bars down. He has been determined to do the opposite of what should be done. It was advised not to have big rallies and he has one. And now things are over the top. The numbers are horrible now. If things had stayed closed and opened slowly I think things would be better right now. He won't even tell his supporters to wear a mask. 

Last edited on Tue Jun 30th, 2020 03:07 pm by Spatulapup

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 Posted: Tue Jun 30th, 2020 03:21 pm
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There’s probably some truth to this. We were told all along we needed to spread out the infections so as not to overwhelm the hospitals, and that’s pretty much what we did. 

Attachment: 09DC35AD-B2C5-4009-8552-5EA8A5DD1D8D.jpeg (Downloaded 23 times)



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 Posted: Tue Jun 30th, 2020 03:32 pm
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That's complete nonsense, srossi. Flattening the curve is what happened in New Zealand. Strict lockdown. Hospitals were not overwhelmed. Cases went to zero. Life goes back to (almost) normal. Live sporting events with a full stadium of 40,000 unmasked fans are able to take place.

Last edited on Tue Jun 30th, 2020 03:34 pm by Kriss



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 Posted: Tue Jun 30th, 2020 03:53 pm
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Spatulapup wrote: Those states opened to soon and have too many people not wearing masks and distancing. When Trump was barking for everyone to open up they did. They listened to Trump instead of experts. Some are now admitting they opened too soon and are closing bars down. He has been determined to do the opposite of what should be done. It was advised not to have big rallies and he has one. And now things are over the top. The numbers are horrible now. If things had stayed closed and opened slowly I think things would be better right now. He won't even tell his supporters to wear a mask. 

But the media reported the rally was a failure that was hardly attended. What about all the people in the streets walking together or gathering in parks? 



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