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 Posted: Wed Nov 4th, 2020 01:30 pm
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broke



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In the time it took for my dentist to replace a filling, Michigan turned Blue. This whole thing may have come down to Nebraska-2. This is nuts.



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 Posted: Wed Nov 4th, 2020 01:48 pm
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krazykid18
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martini wrote: Can we all agree that pollsters are not good at their jobs,though?They keep ignoring Trump's celebrity and his fandom when they do these models, and outliers have to be taken into consideration...

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 Posted: Wed Nov 4th, 2020 02:02 pm
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Blazer
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8,000 votes separating them in NV; 12,000 in MI.

And I could have used a couple more hours of sleep.



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 Posted: Wed Nov 4th, 2020 02:03 pm
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Analysis of pollsters fucking up from twitter.

Trump's performance compared to RCP:

OH: +7
WI: +6
IA: +6
TX: +5
FL: +4.5
NC: +1
GA: +1
AZ: -2.5
MN: -3

And compared to 538 averages:

OH: +7
WI: +8
IA: +7
TX: +5
FL: +6
NC: +3
GA: +3
MN: +2
AZ: -1

Given that there were, at most, about 20 percentage points in play, I think I might become an opinion pollster. Easiest fucking money on the planet. Charge £10m, make shit up, throw it out there, be as accurate as anything else.



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 Posted: Wed Nov 4th, 2020 02:25 pm
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Blazer
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Michigan just dumped a batch of ballots, adding 138,000 votes for Biden and zero for Trump.

I'd like to see a fair winner. This kind of stuff is shitty.



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 Posted: Wed Nov 4th, 2020 02:28 pm
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Portalesman
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Blazer wrote: Michigan just dumped a batch of ballots, adding 138,000 votes for Biden and zero for Trump.

I'd like to see a fair winner. This kind of stuff is shitty.
Lolz.  Silly shit like this is why the right is so adamantly against mail in votes.  



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 Posted: Wed Nov 4th, 2020 02:38 pm
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khawk
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Blazer wrote: Michigan just dumped a batch of ballots, adding 138,000 votes for Biden and zero for Trump.

I'd like to see a fair winner. This kind of stuff is shitty.Help me understand "Dumping a batch of ballots". They just magically found 138,000 votes for Biden?
Serious question. Please don't make me turn on the news and have to wade through all that ridiculousness to figure it out. :)

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 Posted: Wed Nov 4th, 2020 02:41 pm
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Blazer
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They're counting ballots through the morning and post results in batches rather than the numbers going up by one vote each time. They're updating hourly or so. Michigan totals just went up approximately 138,000 for Biden and Trump's number didn't change. Seems questionable, right? The only thing sketchier would be if one of the candidates LOST votes on an update.

Another sketchy thing I read- Nevada registered voters were sent ballots in the mail, whether they asked for one or not. No chance of fraud there, right?



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 Posted: Wed Nov 4th, 2020 02:45 pm
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"Well, maybe I like the nightlife just a little bit more than I like the damn gym, jack! And when you're makin' $500,000 a year, there ain't no reason to change what you're doing." - Dusty Rhodes, 1/4/1986
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 Posted: Wed Nov 4th, 2020 02:46 pm
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khawk
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Thanks for the clarification.

That seems odd in the sense that poll updates usually go by the whole batch of returns...County A casts 55 ballots for Trump, 38 for Biden, etc., and those get posted to the running total as such. At least that's what we see in a Canadian election for eat Member of Parliament's seat. Different systems but you'd think the counting style would be the same.

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 Posted: Wed Nov 4th, 2020 02:47 pm
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Blazer
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500,000 ballots in PA were not cast yesterday. State has no idea if those people voted in person yesterday. Hmmm. What a complete and utter cluster fuck.



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 Posted: Wed Nov 4th, 2020 02:53 pm
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Blazer wrote: 500,000 ballots in PA were not cast yesterday.That's just nonsense.  May as well say eight million billion trillion ballots were not cast.  Or that twelve dodos did not turn up in Philly. 



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 Posted: Wed Nov 4th, 2020 03:03 pm
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Biden has small leads in Wisconsin. Michigan, and Nevada. If he holds on he is right on 270.
Arizona was not a surprise for me.



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 Posted: Wed Nov 4th, 2020 03:13 pm
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Has the overwhelming support for Kanye West from the Yeezy Nation impacted the results yet?



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 Posted: Wed Nov 4th, 2020 03:20 pm
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Superstar wrote: Has the overwhelming support for Kanye West from the Yeezy Nation impacted the results yet?
He actually got some votes in Kentucky 😂 



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